Tadefa Weather
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Your friendly neighborhood forecast.
Weather data provided by the National Weather Service.
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000 FXUS61 KOKX 140234 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1034 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes will move into the area this evening where it will become nearly stationary. The cold front will then very slowly work west to east across the area Thursday afternoon and night. High pressure then builds over the region through Friday night before moving offshore Saturday. A cold front approaches Sunday, moving through late in the day into Sunday night. The front may stall nearby, as waves of low pressure move along the boundary into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure attempts to return from the north early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... The combination of a mid-level shortwave trough and an approaching surface trough will produce a round of showers and thunderstorms into this evening. The brunt of the activity will work across the Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, interior SW CT, and NYC early this evening before weakening and working across eastern CT and LI. The severe weather threat is low with weak mid-level lapse rates and lack of deep-layer shear. However, moderate instability and high PW (increasing to 2") could produce a few strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. The SPC HREF shows high neighborhood probabilities (greater than 50 percent) for an inch/3hr, mainly from NYC and points north and west. For 3"/3hr, the same probabilities get to only around 10 percent. WPC also has the area in marginal risk of excessive rainfall, which mean the potential is there for isolated flash flooding. For the second half of the night, chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease. However, NBM PoPS were used and may be too high based on latest CAMs. The CAMs show very little activity after 10 PM this evening with the airmass stabilizing some and deep lift translating east. Patchy fog is also a possibility overnight with light winds and high dew point air in place. The fog could persist in spots after daybreak for 2 to 3 hours. The surface trough lingers across the area Thursday before the cold front merges with it. This will potentially result in another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Once again, latest CAMs are relatively inactive during the morning hours. Environment remains weakly sheared and moderately unstable. Thus, the severe weather threat remains low. However, high PW air remains in place and steering winds will be light. This will keep the area under a isolated threat of flash flooding. WPC has much of the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Rainfall amounts through Thursday are generally less than half an inch on average, but localized higher amounts of an inch plus are possible. It will remain warm and muggy tonight with lows mainly in the lower and mid 70s. This is about 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday are expected to come down some due to the presence of more cloud clover. However, temperatures could be slightly warmer if more sunshine is achieved. Highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s, but cooler along the south shore and east of LI. This is about 5 degrees above normal. NBM and MOS temperatures are very close during this time. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front will slowly drop south Thursday night into Friday with any lingering convection ending early in the evening. High pressure then builds in from the north through Friday. While the airmass is not whole lot cooler, an easterly flow should cool the boundary layer some. It will also become slightly less humid. Forecast area will reside close to the northern edge of a cloud shield and some of the 12Z guidance has trended toward more clouds across the area. NBM at this time keeps clouds to the south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The beginning of the long term period will be quiet with temperatures near seasonal normals with high pressure over the region. High pressure will be offshore Sunday as a cold front approaches, and moves through late day into Sunday night. With a return flow temperatures Sunday will be in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast. And the combination of dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s will produce heat indices in the mid 90s. Sunday will be the only day of heat and humidity as temperatures return to near or below seasonal levels behind the cold front Monday into Wednesday. And drier air will be moving in as high pressure builds to the north. The cold front is expected to stall somewhere south of the region late Sunday night, and weak waves of low pressure move along the boundary Monday through Wednesday. With this possibility there are at least slight chances of precipitation, although there will be dry periods at times as well. The NBM was followed throughout the extended period. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front slowly approaches tonight, moving through Thursday. The last of the rain will exit ern portions of the area overnight. Generally VFR outside of the rain, although KGON is expected to drop to IFR late. There is a chance it gets into ISP as well. Sct shwrs and tstms possible again on Thu, mainly in the aftn invof the front. Prob30s have been maintained in the fcst. Winds lighten tonight, going variable in direction at most terminals, which may persist through much of Thursday morning or become northerly. Increasing southerly flow then follows in the afternoon, followed by light N/VRB flow Thu ngt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Winds may be close to 200 true thru 6Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night-Sunday: VFR. Monday: Morning -shra and MVFR possible, otherwise mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient will be rather weak through early next week. Conditions on the waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory (SCA) thresholds. && .HYDROLOGY... WPC has the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Thursday. Weak steering winds and PW values around 2 inches will produce localized heavy rainfall with the potential for instances of isolated flash flooding. Overall, basin averaged rainfall amounts are less than an inch. Otherwise, there are no significant hydrological concerns thereafter through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... For Thursday, a moderate risk for the development of rip currents is forecast at the New York City ocean beaches, with a low risk at the Nassau and Suffolk counties beaches. For Friday there is a low risk for the development of rip currents at all the ocean beaches. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC/JC MARINE...MET/DW HYDROLOGY...MET/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...