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000 FXUS61 KILN 040632 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will bring dry and mild conditions through mid week. Rain is expected on Friday ahead of a cold front that should cross Friday evening. A much cooler airmass will then settle into the region over the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A ridge of high pressure running from the WI/MI border south- southeast to the parent circulation in the eastern Tennessee Valley will keep a light southwest wind over the region today, peaking around 10 mph in the early afternoon. High cloud cover streaming in from the west will hamper any significant temperature rise, though highs should still reach near 60 in all areas. As the ridge axis shifts east, we may start to see some high level clouds move in from the west later tonight. But with a decreasing gradient and mostly clear skies, we should end up with some decent radiational cooling overnight with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High clouds will be exiting east and surface winds will back to southerly at around 5 mph. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will tighten the gradient in the Ohio Valley, leading to warm advection and overnight winds increasing to 10-15 mph in the northwest, 5-10 mph in the southeast. Lows will be notably milder in the 40s. This low moves to the eastern Great Lakes Wed afternoon, with a westerly shift to the winds in our region, and an increase to 15-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph. The dry cold front extending southwest from the parent low will cross in the late day/early evening, shifting winds to the northwest and decreasing to 10-15 mph. While the front may be dry, it denotes a significant airmass change. As it crosses, expect about a 15-20 degree drop in temperatures from late day into the evening. A few hours before and after sunset will have temps drop from the mid-upper 60s into the mid 40s north of I-70, a little over 50 along and south of the Ohio. In rapid fashion, a surface high will follow the low and settle over the CWA by daybreak Thursday. Light winds around the high and clear sky cover will permit lows to drop back into the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The high moves east during the day Thursday with southerly flow bringing more moisture to the region overnight. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s, and overnight lows near 40 in the Hocking Hills and southern Scioto Valley to the mid 40s along the OH/IN border and north central KY. The surface flow turns southwest and increases as 850mb lljet of 45-50kt moves east during the day ahead of the next cold front. These strong winds will transport a significant amount of moisture to the region, which will then get wrung out as a good rainfall during the day ahead of the frontal passage in the evening. Rain will abruptly end as the front passes. The warm advection ahead of it will see highs reach the lower 60s in the northwest, mid-upper 60s in the southeast. Between systems, Saturday high temps should range from 55 along the I-70 corridor to near 60 along and south of the Ohio. Overnight lows should be within a few degrees of 40. A relatively weak surface low or trough crosses on Saturday night. Behind it, strong high pressure over the Plains will begin an eastward track. Northwest wind ahead of it through a deep layer of the atmosphere will result in strong cold advection in the Ohio Valley. Sunday high temps will be mid 40s northwest, lower 50s southeast. By Monday, highs will only top out around 40. Low temperatures for the beginning of the week will solidly be in the 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aside from the valley fog at KLUK, VFR conditions will be found today with increasing high cloud cover. Winds will be light and under 10kt, then back and lower slightly in the late afternoon and early evening. Later overnight, winds will pick back up and should be southerly around 10kt before daybreak. Some passing cloud cover is possible but the indication of enough moisture at any particular level or time is not noted, so fcst is for skc. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Franks